Ethan Vance | staff writer

The 2026 midterms could shape President Donald Trump’s final two years in office. It can also influence the 2028 elections, as both parties will start discussing their strategies to win the presidency.

The Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate and a 218-214 majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. The House has 435 seats, including an independent who doesn’t caucus with either party, and two vacancies.

“If Republicans keep control of congress, the president will continue to unilaterally direct government,” said Jacob Schiller, a teaching assistant professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh. “If Democrats take control of the house but not the senate, we should expect two things: greater oversight and the blame game.”

During the first two years of his second term, Trump has been able to pass numerous pieces of legislation through the Republican-controlled Congress, including the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July 2025. The law cut funding in multiple government-funded programs, such as SNAP and Medicaid, with increases in military and border defense spending.

“I think the key question is whether the Democrats can get some control of the American government from Donald Trump, during a time where he’s deeply unpopular,” said Thaddeus Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego. “If the Democrats can’t recapture at least one chamber, it could foretell strong Republican control for many years going forward.”

As of Friday, Trump’s approval rating sits at 38%, according to Ballotpedia.

The battle for the U.S. Congress

Some races that have a chance of flipping parties in the U.S. House include the 7th Congressional District of Ohio. Incumbent Republican Max Miller is running against Democrat Brian Poindexter. The district is usually seen as safely Republican, but reports of Miller assaulting his then-wife and their daughter surfaced in July, raising questions about his reelection status.

In Pennsylvania, where Republicans hold a 10-7 edge on representatives in the U.S. House, the Democrats are looking to take back the majority.

The 1st, 7th, 8th and 10th Congressional Districts are considered competitive with Republican incumbents in each.

With so many seats up for grabs, each race is important, Kousser said.

“It’s impossible to pinpoint one single district that might be pivotal,” he said.

There are also key races in the Senate.

In Texas, current state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin is running against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Talarico is trying to become the first Democrat to win a statewide race since 1994, while Republicans are trying to keep control. Although Texas has consistently swung red, this race has received unusual attention due to the nature of the candidates, Schiller said.

“The implications of Texas going blue are monumental, but may not be replicable in the near future due to the uniquely strong Democratic candidate, weak Republican candidate and a challenging political environment nationwide for Republicans,” Schiller said.

In Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers, a former member of the U.S. House, is running against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. Republicans haven’t won a senate race since 1994. But it was a state Trump carried in both of his presidential victories in 2016 and 2024, so Rogers will be looking to have that same success.

On the other hand, a win for Democrats could inspire hope for the party’s future, Schiller said.

“A win for El-Sayed would signal that the left wing of the party can win in competitive, swing districts,” he said. “Any type of win for El-Sayed will become a rallying cry for progressives.”

Governor elections signal changes in the country

There are also key gubernatorial races this cycle.

“I think the gubernatorial races in Georgia and Ohio are really important,” said Mitchell Brown, a political science professor at Auburn university. “I think they’re real bellwethers for other things that are going on.”

In Georgia, the Democratic candidate is the former Mayor of Atlanta, Keisha Lance Bottoms. Her Republican opponent is Rick Jackson.

Georgia hasn’t had a Democratic governor since 2003, and Lance Bottoms could make history by becoming the first female governor in Georgia history.

In Ohio, the Republican candidate is Vivek Ramaswamy, who ran for President in 2024. His Democratic challenger is Amy Acton.

The Ohio race has picked up steam since Ramaswamy released an advertisement on Oct. 19 with Acton’s estranged mother.

Parties try new ways to get voters to the polls

Midterm elections typically receive lower turnout than presidential elections. Since 2010, voter turnout for midterms has been as much as 23.4% lower than the following presidential election, according to BallotPedia.

At the Republican’s midterm convention in September, Trump promised $5,000 checks to every American adult if the Republicans remain in control of congress — something Kousser believes will help with voter turnout.

“I think politicians make promises and embrace popular policies,” Kousser said. “This way they can mobilize their base and try to persuade undecided voters.”

Brown thinks it’s important to get your own party out to the polls.

“I would do what Republicans are in red states or in purple states,” Brown said. “Which is saying to the base, you got to come out and vote, and we can see the Republicans doing that in their messaging.”

Beyond individual races, the direction of the Supreme Court and the chance for Democrats to have oversight on the Trump administration loom.

“I think the two biggest stakes are control over the Supreme Court and oversight of the executive branch,” he said. “It is unlikely that the oversight will be able to stop the Trump administration’s worst impulses but it will bring substantially more scrutiny than what has been happening.”

In Pennsylvania, Oct. 27 will be the last day to request a mail-in ballot and polls will open on election day, Nov. 3, at 7 a.m., and close at 8 p.m.

Ethan Vance can be reached at vancee@duq.edu