Naomi Girson | opinions editor

As midterms approach, more names seem to be circulating on the democratic side of the ticket.

2024 was aggravating, with a refusal from Joe Biden to step aside from reelection until July 21 of election year.

The Democrats didn’t have time for a primary and Kamala Harris stepped up to be the Democratic candidate.

It’s no huge shocker the Democrats lost that race. But now, with more time to prepare, every election matters even more.

Though 2028 is still a ways away, the midterms are going to be here before we know it.

A third of U.S. senators are up for re-election (these are the people that can vote to impeach a sitting president) and all 435 members of the House of Representatives are on the chopping block.

Thus, a new session of Congress will begin on Jan 3, 2027.

With this comes the selection of a new Speaker of the House, chosen with a vote from every member of the House. Each party selects their nominee and normally, the majority party gets their choice of speaker.

The Speaker of the House wields real power in Congress, giving that individual and their party the ability to set the agenda over the House, according to Congress.
 

Before the 2024 election, some theorized that current house minority leader Hakeem Jeffries would take on the position, according to NPR, but the Democrats lost not only the presidential election but also majorities in both the Senate and the House.

Political scientists seem to believe that midterms always stir House seats up, and more likely than not, cause a flip in the majority from one party to another, according to the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Since 1950, the party of the president has only gained seats twice as a result of midterms, in 1998 and 2002. Otherwise, a midterm has caused a disruption in the president’s party’s agenda.

They used a forecasting model, applying the president’s approval rating and American’s disposable income to decipher just how many seats the Republican party will win or lose in the midterms. The lower the approval rating and less disposable income, the more seats the incumbent’s party is likely to lose.

According to the London School of Economics and Political Science, an approval rating below 50% beckons an average loss of 34 seats for the incumbent party, based on midterm data from 1950 onward. The outcome is similar for poor economic growth.

Trump’s current approval rating sits at 39%, according to consolidated New York Times polling. Average disposable income is harder to find with large outliers offsetting the totals, but there are other ways of getting a perspective on the current state of the economy.

For a basic economic example, we can look at gas prices. Back when Donald Trump was first inaugurated in January of 2025, the average price for a gallon of gas was $3.08 a gallon, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Now, in April of 2026 the average gallon of gas in the U.S costs $4.02, according to CNBC.

Similarly, the average rate of spending is down, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

With these kinds of numbers, the likelihood of a seat flip becomes even more likely, and predictably bigger.

The possible seat flip in favor of the Democrats gives them important power in Congress. It gives them more of an opportunity to put a stop to dangerous legislation the Republicans are trying to push through. Recently, there has been a lot of discussion over the SAVE Act, which puts stricter requirements on eligibility to vote and isolates those without quick access to important documents like their birth certificate, according to Vote.org.

The act has been passed through the House, but is currently on the Senate floor for debate. If it were to be passed, the SAVE Act would change the demographic of eligible voters in the next election, the primaries and then soon after the midterms.

The midterms aren’t until November, but a lack of preparedness is what harmed the Democrats severely in the presidential election of 2024.

Right now, it’s necessary to know who’s currently in Congress pushing through dangerous legislation, like recent attempts to try and undo the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, which is why you are probably still on your parents’ health insurance in college.

The elections seem more important than ever Congress is supposed to reflect the view of their people, so make sure you know your congressperson, your senators, and verify that the legislation they are voting in favor of is something that benefits you as well.

If we can’t get Trump out of office until 2028, the least we can do is limit his power in the ways we can.

Naomi Girson can be reached at girsonn@duq.edu