Spencer Thomas | editor-in-chief

The NHL-sponsored 4 Nations Face-off gets underway next week in perhaps the most exciting venture a pro-league has taken in my lifetime. Rather than a traditional All-Star weekend, the NHL concocted a best-on-best national team tournament featuring the United States, Canada, Sweden and Finland. It is the first of its kind in almost a decade. Hockey’s distribution of talent is widespread, so it’s a shame we haven’t seen something like this since the 2016 World Cup of Hockey, but that only ramps up the energy for next week’s competition.

Each team will play each other once, and then the two highest performing teams will compete in a championship game.

While the talent gap has shrunk, Canada still holds an edge on the competition. Any team with Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid is the favorite. Enough said.

Critics of Canada will point to goaltending as an Achilles heel. Nobody up north has separated themselves, and the group of Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill and Sam Montembault is the worst in the tournament, top-to-bottom. All three American goaltenders are better than any of them. The same is true of Sweden, and even Russia, had they been included in the tournament. Hill is top among the Canadiens, 33rd in save percentage in the NHL.

However, goaltending isn’t going to be nearly the storyline writers are making it out to be because the sample size is too small. Over an 82-game season, America would have the advantage. But in four games, anything goes. The skill gap between what are still top-end goalies is small enough that it shouldn’t show in such a relatively small amount of hockey. Even if they aren’t Vezina-quality, they will save enough shots that their offense can fill the gaps.

That’s the other area where the tournament’s format favors Canada. The teams have two days to practice before the tournament. Because there haven’t been any international tournaments, most of these guys are playing together for the first time. Chemistry will be at a minimum, so those who can make plays on their own with quickness and skill will be more successful than ever. Someone like McDavid, who gets only 1.52 assists per goal, is going to feast. Meanwhile, America’s captain and star Auston Matthews is sitting closer to 1.7 assists per goal. That’s not to say one player is dramatically better than the other, but they draw their goals in different ways. In this format? Advantage McDavid, and other Canadians who have been the fastest in the league this year, like MacKinnon and Brayden Point.

The area where the United States stands out is in the net. Connor Hellebuyck is the runaway favorite for his third-career Vezina Trophy this season and has the Winnipeg Jets sitting atop the league. He’s the best goalie in the NHL, though he has struggled in big games. Throughout his career, Hellebuyck boasts a .917 save percentage, and gives up 2.58 goals per game. In Winnipeg’s last two playoff runs, his save percentage dropped to .877, and he gave up 4.34 goals per game.

The Americans’ best chance at winning requires Hellebuyck to be the best player in the tournament. If he can shake his troubles in the big games, that can happen. If not, Penguins and Team USA Head Coach Mike Sullivan needs to be aggressive. Jake Oettinger has to be one of the best backup goalies in the history of the sport, and he should enter the tournament at the first sign of trouble.

Besides Sullivan and Crosby, the other two Penguins in the tournament will be representing Sweden. Erik Karlsson and Rickard Rakell certainly aren’t expected to be game breakers. Despite having the best season of his career, Rakell was snubbed from the team until a last second injury opened up a forward spot. He brings depth to a rotation that lacks goal-scorers. In fact, he is second among Swedes in goals this season, behind Toronto’s William Nylander. He could be a dark horse in the tournament. The young player I’m most interested in is Ducks forward Leo Carlsson. At only 20 years old, he has shown to be a competent playmaker who can get into dangerous areas by himself. He proved on the international stage, becoming the youngest player to ever score for the national team at the 2023 World Championships.

Finland is widely considered to be the underdog of the tournament, because after a first line that features superstars Aleksander Barkov and Mikko Rantenen the talent dries up quickly. However, they are a nation that traditionally outperforms their talent pool, amd they will certainly need to do so to escape the basement of this tournament.

Spencer’s prediction: Canada dominates, goes undefeated and beats Team USA in the final.