Michael O’Grady | sports editor

Opening Day is ever the day of optimism across North America. For a lot of cities, it’s the next-best thing to a federal holiday. In Pittsburgh, it’s so-and-so’s birthday at work and, after awkwardly singing Happy Birthday in front of cubicles, everyone is getting their mandated piece of cake someone bought at Giant Eagle two hours ago.

I’m confident if Pirates owner Bob Nutting was entered in a Pittsburgh’s Most Hated Sportsperson contest, he’d either finish comfortably in first or behind Tom Brady by a razor-thin margin. Nutting is notorious for being cheap in a league with minimal maximum spending laws, and his team looks it. This will almost certainly be year 10 of a postseason drought in which the Pirates have been over .500 once, an 82-79 record in 2018. Pittsburgh has never won the National League Central since the division’s formation in 1994, and it has six total playoff appearances since its last World Series title in 1979.

Nutting and general manager Ben Cherington made no effort to improve on their 76-86 ballclub in the offseason, despite lucking into a starting rotation with names other teams would love to poach (and may soon get the chance to). Forget high-priced talent like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes or Willy Adames, the Pirates were gun-shy on any talent at all.

Jurickson Profar’s power with an inconsistent history in a corner outfield position screamed Pittsburgh Pirate, especially for a team needing any hitting they could get. But even though Profar was unsigned until late January, there was never any talk of it happening. There was no room for Gavin Lux in the Dodger infield, so the Reds, a team with an overabundance of infielders, swung a pick and a prospect for him in a trade the Bucs absolutely could’ve made. Lux would’ve been, at worst, the second-best hitter on the team. The Mets’ signing of Soto and re-signing of Jesse Winker created a roadblock for 36-year-old right fielder and former Pirate Starling Marte. Still with some juice in his bat, he was very publicly shopped around, but the Pirates were asleep at the wheel and the Mets retained him.

Pittsburgh’s complete reluctance to add leaves it with a very similar roster as last season’s, a highly unimpressive mix of players that might do this or can sometimes do that. Here’s who’ll have trouble raising the Jolly Roger this season.

Starting Pitching

2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes is the franchise’s biggest star since Andrew McCutchen, and I’m talking about the version of Cutch that got traded in 2018. Skenes, the reigning NL Rookie of the Year, regularly hits triple-digits on his fastball but throws five other pitches, none of which are hit particularly well. Depending on his health, he could be the best pitcher in the world very soon, and he’ll only be 23 this season with a persona the Pirates otherwise lack.

Jared Jones also had an impressive rookie season, but he flamed out toward the end and starts this year dealing with elbow discomfort which will cut into April. Regardless, he should improve. Mitch Keller is a solid third starter and Andrew Heaney brings championship experience from Texas. He was Pittsburgh’s best signing this offseason, which isn’t a compliment. Bailey Falter and Carmen Mlodzinski are average depth starters, and very few teams roll out five or six legit arms, so I can’t fault the Pirates for not improving there. Also, don’t be surprised to see a cameo at some point this season from Bubba Chandler. Skenes, Jones and Keller will win this team games, the rest of the roster is the problem.

Relief Pitching

The good news: Dauri “Big Bank” Moreta and his awesome nickname should come back from Tommy John surgery midseason, and Colin Holderman might be the most underrated setup man in the NL. The bad news is I don’t see Dennis Santana replicating his 2.44 ERA in 39 games with Pittsburgh last season, and Caleb Ferguson is one of those guys where he strikes out everybody or he gets hit, hard.

Closer David Bednar was genuinely awful last year, and his Renegade entrance is going to get real old fast if he doesn’t quickly pick it up in 2025. Aroldis Chapman (who’s now in Boston, by the way) can get away with high walks-per-nine because he throws smoke, Bednar doesn’t. Everyone else in the bullpen should either be inconsequential or bad, unless Tim Mayza remembers how to strike batters out.
Infield

Pirates fans will be saddened to know Rowdy Tellez’s contract was selected by the Mariners on Tuesday, assuming he stays with Seattle his homecoming to PNC Park won’t be until 2026. Light-hearted jokes aside, this infield is a sick one. I’m a fan of Ke’Bryan Hayes and his glove at third base, but he hit 13 total extra-base hits last year and his back issues are extremely concerning for what should be a franchise cornerstone, despite what he says about it. Catcher Joey Bart was a savvy pickup by Cherington last season. What wasn’t savvy was the trade for Spencer Horwitz.

Horwitz was decent with Toronto, but teams need pop at first base, and 13 home runs in 112 career games isn’t enough to justify trading for a guy you know has bad wrists who is now on the IL after wrist surgery. Now former top prospect Endy Rodríguez is penciled in at first, himself coming back from elbow surgery which kept him out of 2024, and what’s more, he doubles as the backup catcher. That aside, middle infielders Nick Gonzales and Isiah Kiner-Falefa can’t hit. Unless Rodríguez finds his groove in the majors, there’s little hope for this infield, and depth like Jared Triolo or the returning Adam Frazier isn’t moving the needle. Oh, and 2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis, catcher, is buried in Indianapolis.

Outfield

Right fielder Bryan Reynolds is great, but he’s wasting his career in Pittsburgh, and he has to be wondering if he’ll play on a competitive team before he hits free agency in 2031. This is a make-or-break season for Oneil Cruz, who figures to patrol center. If he can keep himself healthy and finally string two years together in the majors, a good year with 25 or so bombs will have the jury decide in his favor.

Tommy Pham was the big offensive signing of the winter, a 37-year-old journeyman who has played for seven teams in the last three years. That’s not entirely his fault, but he hasn’t hit 20 home runs since 2019 and frankly his career is fading. Pittsburgh could’ve done better, and I’m sure that bench options Ji Hwan Bae and Jack Suwinski wouldn’t be in the major leagues on two-thirds of the teams in MLB. McCutchen, at this point a designated hitter, is also running out of gas, but his bat is still good enough to platoon with someone rather than the full-time job he’s set to have. It could’ve been DJ Stewart or Joshua Palacios if they weren’t optioned.

Prediction

It will be to the surprise of no one when Pittsburgh finishes last in the NL Central this season. The kicker is that this division right now has no clear favorite. Milwaukee is talented, but I expect a slight regression from the Brewers and they’re not much better than the Reds, who themselves aren’t much better than the Cubs. St. Louis is in the doldrums after years of somewhat understandably neglecting player development, but even it has a roster that’s better than Pittsburgh’s. There’s no better time to compete for the Central, and the Pirates refuse to.

Enjoy Paul Skenes. There won’t be much else to watch in this 90-loss season.